Following a wave of early-season storms, winter seems to be moving in quick. Are we moving faster than previous years? In fact, this is about on par with other years.

With temperatures already hitting subzero territory in Tabernash for consecutive mornings and wind chills dropping to negative 20 degrees Fahrenheit over Berthoud Pass, we are already feeling the brunt of winter when it comes to temperatures. What about snowpack though?

The National Water and Climate Center under the U.S. Department of Agriculture has created a wide array of SNOTEL (snow telemetry) weather stations to track the evolution of snowpack and improve water supply forecasts. There are currently more than 900 SNOTEL weather stations across the American West tracking measurements like snow depth, and 36 are in the upper Colorado River Basin — 10 in Grand County.

One of the best measures of snowpack these stations measure is SWE, or snow-water equivalent, a measure of how deeply water would cover the ground if all the snow were to instantly melt. Usually, our snowpack at higher elevations does not begin until the first week of November when we typically see 2 inches of SWE. A healthier snowpack, or about 6 inches of SWE, usually does not fall and settle until mid- to late December. This is only just the beginning of the season though as we do not see our snowpack peak until mid-April to early May.

As of Nov. 17, Grand County’s SNOTEL stations sit between 0-4 inches of SWE, or between 75-110% of average readings this time of year. This means that snowpack at those higher elevations has kickstarted for the season, and the only way to go from here is up. Since snowpack at higher elevations has started off decently, sitting around average, what about the valleys?

As of right now, that is still a very big unknown. It is still November, a week or two of sunny and pleasant conditions could absolutely melt all snowfall, even in shaded areas or north-facing slopes. With current forecasts, we could see a good bit of melting over the coming week. As forecasts above 7-10 days out are not historically accurate, take this with a grain of salt, but the next signal for any snow comes in late November.

The Climate Prediction Center currently hints at a chance for slightly above average precipitation through the end of November, echoing these signals for the next system, but it is not being agreed upon by models at this point.

What does this mean? Lots of computer models have been created to predict the weather, following essential math equations that resolve weather conditions. None of these models follow the exact same principles and assumptions, so each one has its own strengths and weaknesses, but when all models agree on a certain outcome, it’s bound to happen.

As of right now, while all models don’t agree on the timing of the next system that will bring moisture our way, it’s only a matter of time. Stay warm in the meantime!

JP Connick is a local weather enthusiast who lives in Granby. He has been publicly forecasting weather for Grand County since March of 2023, and you can find these forecasts on the Grand County Weather Facebook page. He has also contributed research in statistical modeling to NOAA’s Meteorological Development Laboratory and is in the process of publishing that research.