After a strong, early season storm system brought up to 6 inches of snow to the higher elevations along the Continental Divide and momentarily closed Trail Ridge Road, the question now remains of when we will see snow within the towns of Grand County. According to the Western Regional Climate Center, the first measurable snow for all towns across Grand County, on average, is during the month of September.

With leaves falling from trees, September departing and ski resort opening dates just around the corner, when will we see that fresh snow piling into the valleys this year? Unfortunately, that first significant snow may have to wait a little.

The Climate Prediction Center’s Week 3-4 Outlook calls for a 60-70% chance of above average temperatures through Oct. 25, and the monthlong outlook also echoes this message. The month of October forecasted by the prediction center is to have a 70-80% chance of above average temperatures along with a 50-60% chance of drier than average conditions.

While this may discourage most for the prospect of an early ski season, the weather out here can change in a snap! All it takes is one system to bring a significant amount of snow to the region. Back in 2020 after a historic fire season and long-lasting drought, a very strong system dropped up to 24 inches of snow along the Continental Divide as determined by the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center from Oct. 25-26. Granby recorded 7 inches of snow, while a location near Fraser recorded 8 inches of fresh snow.

This 2020 storm came after a historic drought as well. So, what we see right now, with areas in Grand County seeing up to 1 inch less of precipitation than normal over the course of September, as noted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Regional Climate Centers, could turn around in a heartbeat with one large storm.

To look ahead at the rest of the season, we are expected to transition into a weak La Niña, a phenomenon where ocean temperatures cool off the coast of northern South America along the equator. This slightly changes the typical movement of systems that impact the United States and can drastically change what you can expect to see over a season.

A weak La Niña, however, has a somewhat weak effect on what we expect within Grand County. The only pattern that has been noted during weak La Niña episodes is a slightly colder than average winter.

Over the past eight weak La Niña episodes, recorded temperatures were about 1-2 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than average over the Colorado Western Slope between the months of December and April, according to data from the Earth System Research Laboratories and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences in Boulder. Average precipitation is also common when we have a weak La Niña. So, while we may see slightly cooler temperatures this year due to similar years in the past, snowfall is expected to hover around average accumulation amounts over the course of the season.

JP Connick is a local weather enthusiast who lives in Granby. He has been publicly forecasting weather for Grand County since March of 2023, and you can find these forecasts on the Grand County Weather Facebook page. He has also contributed research in statistical modeling to NOAA’s Meteorological Development Laboratory and is in the process of publishing that research.