As goes the Colorado economy, so goes the Grand County economy.

That’s what I’ve witnessed for more than 45 years of watching the unique economy we live with in Grand County. Sometimes Grand County is a year or two later in following the state’s trends, sometimes not.

In 2024, and perhaps in 2025, I fear that we are much more closely on the heels of the Colorado economy, which isn’t exactly great news. As discussed in the 2025 Colorado Business Economic Outlook from the University of Colorado Boulder’s Leeds School of Business, Colorado has slipped from its perch as one of the top-performing states in the nation when it comes to the economy.

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And, based on what I’ve been seeing with clients and the businesses in general in Grand County, we have also slipped somewhat from the heady days after the Great Recession and after COVID.

In writing about this report, Aldo Svaldi of The Denver Post said, “Signs of fatigue (in the Colorado economy) were hard to miss this year as it veered way off course.”

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I would say Grand County’s economy also veered off course. It certainly isn’t soaring as it did from 2020 to 2022. Ironically, the pandemic, which skewed many economies in the state downward for those years, pushed our local economies skyward. Proof of that can be seen in the lopsided increases in sales tax revenue the county and most of our municipalities saw in those three years.

Yes, there was a pronounced and massive dip during the three to four months of the COVID onset, but then the sky was almost the limit. Why? Resort and rural areas like Grand County saw a huge renewed interest from people wanting to flee the urban morass of cities, especially Colorado’s Front Range.

More people came here on day trips, more people came here to stay in short-term rentals, and more people came to buy real estate. There was a boom in the local economy.

But that boom has abated, and that abatement is obvious in toned-down sales tax revenue growth, longer time on market for real estate listings, and fewer people on our trails, roads and sidewalks.

In a quirk that seems like turning back time, the changes were most obvious in the off-seasons. The peak seasons of winter and summer were still quite busy, with the Fraser Valley maintaining its longterm growth in summer visitation. It’s not just a winter resort, as economic boosters there have been proclaiming for years.

But for spring and fall, that lag in overall business activity has been particularly obvious. These shoulder seasons have now lapsed back into that “shoulder” status. That is where Grand County saw most of the drop. And by drop I mean that the rate of increase was not what it has been since COVID.

So what’s coming? The guy who chaired the Colorado Outlook for Colorado, said, “We are expecting continued growth in 2025, but it is at a slower rate.”

I think that’s what we can expect in Grand County next year, as well. Growth, but not the growth of 2021 and 2022. For some, that may be good news. For others, it’s probably just going to look like the status quo — 2024 redux.

Patrick Brower is the enterprise facilitator for the Grand Enterprise Initiative. He can be reached at pbrower@consultbrower.com.