As snowpack levels dwindle and lag behind historic trends across Colorado, the newest report on the summer outlook for Colorado shows some promise for a favorable monsoon season. 

Since Colorado relies on its frozen stores of water during the summer to help fill reservoirs, fuel stream levels and keep soil moist, officials keep a keen eye on snowpack levels and the monsoon forecast, which are used to determine drought and fire danger conditions. 

The statewide snowpack hasn’t reached above normal levels since December, leaving Colorado with around 44% of the 30-year median for snow levels as of Wednesday, May 14. This places the statewide snowpack at the 8th percentile. While the Blue River Basin in the state’s high elevation areas of the northern mountain region is defying statewide trends, that basin sits below normal at 82% of the 30-year median as of Wednesday, May 14. 

Despite the development of drought conditions across the state, a new OpenSnow report providing an early forecast for the summer is showing the potential for relief from developing drought conditions. OpenSnow meteorologist Alan Smith says a review of data similar to the current climate conditions shows signs of a dry early start to summer followed by a “fairly active monsoon season.”

Portions of the state have been teetering on the line of drought conditions so far this year. 

March snowfall helped the state’s northern mountains shift away from potential drought development, but meteorologists warned that a dry and warm spring and early summer could place parts of the state back into drought. A drought monitor report now lists every county on the state’s Western Slope and mountain region, except for Clear Creek County, as either abnormally dry or in some stage of drought status.  

Brad Pugh, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster and author of the latest drought monitor, previously said spring snowpack levels are a “critical factor” in the drought forecasts. 

Takeaways from the new OpenSnow report

Smith examined data going back to 1991 and found five years that are similar to this year’s low snowpack in May that also matched the current transitional phase between El Nino and La Nina that is expected to hold through the summer. Those years include 2012, 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2021. 

Above-average summer temperatures were observed in these years, with elevated temperatures typically starting earlier and lasting longer. 

“In other words, summers tend to be long and hot with more frequent and more intense heat waves than usual,” Smith wrote. 

Though monsoon season may tend to be “very active” during these years, the highest rainfall is typically seen to a “lesser extent in Western Colorado.”

Colorado’s mountains tend to have above-average precipitation starting during the period of July to August. 

The detailed report dives into how snowpack can affect monsoon development and also gives deep dives on how early, mid and late summer could pan out based on the current conditions and forecasts. 

Many forecasts call for a hot summer

Long-range forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show elevated chances for above-normal temperatures between the next two weeks to three months. 

The three-month outlook from the administration calls for an 70% to 80% chance for temperatures to be higher than historic levels while signaling for 40% to 50% chances for below average precipitation. 

The three-month outlooks look at the months of May, June and July and are typically issued around the 17th of each month.  

A recently released summer outlook from the Farmers Almanac says “the heat is on” for this summer. 

“Heat will be in full force by July, with much of the nation sweltering with above- to high-above average temperatures,” the Farmers Almanac report states. “More long-time high temperature records may be broken this year.”

The region including Colorado calls for “scorching” heat and average rainfall, according to the Farmers Almanac.