Figures just released by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment reveal a not-so-bright picture for Colorado’s economy and employment for this year.

The state lost 11,700 non-farm jobs in 2025. Some major employers based in the Front Range (Palantir, for instance) moved out of Colorado. The state’s unemployment rate is right around four percent now, much higher than in the recent past since Covid.

And yet, when looking at the numbers for Grand County employment, the numbers aren’t so bad. In fact, they look pretty good. Good, that is, if you are a potential employee. Bad if you need to hire.

The truth is this: It’s not always a good idea to hang our economic outlook hat on the labor and employment numbers from the state when it comes to Grand County’s economy. That’s because many of the higher-paying jobs in the county aren’t people getting paychecks that pass through the state’s employment tax system.

Many of the jobs that pay well in Grand County are actually contractors and independents who own and operate construction contracting companies, small businesses and other “independent” contractors like people who service the county’s service and resort economy.

These people generally don’t claim unemployment benefits and the like because they are 1099’ed and don’t get a W-2, which is the mechanism whereby the state gets its numbers.

That being said, the “regular” employment snapshot for Grand County looks pretty, good, with near “full” employment at a rate of 2.6 percent for Grand County over the past year, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s a reassuring figure. And people are still fretting over such a tight labor market here in which it’s difficult to hire.

For some historical context, while the rate was 3.5% in 2024, the county experienced a high of 20.6% in May 2020 and a low of 1.7% in July 1999.

But some grumbling is starting to surface in the “independent contractor” world where not everyone has a long waitlist stretching out into the distant future for work. I hear this more frequently now from the construction trades. But there’s also some consternation in the pure tourism independent contractor world in the wake of a lackluster ski and snow season.

The small business world, especially in the hard-goods retail realm and recreational services, will see some fallout this year. This is because of the bad snow year and a world in which most average consumers are much more tight-fisted with their spending. High gas prices and general uncertainty in the world don’t help. The basic cost of living just continues to go up, as my recent property taxes and insurance bills can attest.

Sadly, we are going to see some attrition in local businesses.

What can be done about this? Well, not much. Sadly or happily, Grand County’s economy is a victim of (or beneficiary) of the regional, state and national economy. That’s the way it is with a tourism-based economy. And increasingly it’s not only macro economies that impact us here in little old Grand County.

National and regional weather patterns are increasingly playing a larger role in our economic fate. Hot and dry weather on the Front Range or in Texas may indeed push people to the cooler high country. But a similar weather pattern, if it bleeds over into the mountains, can hurt locally too. Just remember, local forest fires and low rivers and reservoirs aren’t exactly good for business.

Like farmers, we depend increasingly on the “just right” weather patterns.

I am already praying for snow and cold weather next winter. I’m crossing my fingers, too.

Patrick Brower is the Enterprise Facilitator for the Grand Enterprise Initiative. He offers free and confidential business management coaching to anyone who wants to start or expand a business in Grand County. He is also the author of “KILLDOZER: The True Story of the Colorado Bulldozer Rampage.”  He can be reached by calling 970-531-0632 or at pbrower@consultbrower.com.