Go ahead, call me a grinch.

A variety of data points relating to Colorado and regional economic trends show that 2026 probably won’t be a gangbuster year for growth like, say, the years of 2022 and 2023.

First, the news from The Denver Post in its reporting on the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado shows a course correction for the state’s recent rapid growth era. This is particularly true when it comes to jobs statewide, which has some trickle-down effect here in Grand County.

The first paragraph of the story states, “Colorado’s economy will continue to crawl along next year, with GDP growth strengthening but job gains remaining sluggish as some of the state’s highest-paying sectors shed jobs.”

Going back to 1990, the state has added an average of 55,000 jobs a year while the forecast calls for a gain in 2026 of 17,500 net new jobs, according to the school’s Colorado Business Economic Outlook. That’s a significant change, and it reflects anticipated drops related to tech-sector job cuts, the impacts of tariffs and the impacts of stricter immigration enforcement.

Yes, there aren’t exactly a million tech-sector jobs in Grand, which are nonetheless high paying. But these better-than-average earning employees on the Front Range are the very ones buying real estate in the mountains, traveling here on vacation and boosting the overall economy in general.

Tariffs are having impacts with high prices, which only means that fewer people will have fewer dollars in disposable income for trips to the mountains and the like. As we are mainly a tourist economy now in Grand, that will have an impact.

“The effective tariff rate on Colorado imports has jumped from 3% last year to 21% in 2025, according to the Office of State Planning and Budgeting,” The Denver Post reports. “Businesses are absorbing much of that sevenfold increase early on, but consumers can expect to foot more of the bill over time.”

I also think it would be a mistake to discount the impacts of more stringent immigration enforcement on our local economy. I already know of two families who had children in the school district who had to leave because they didn’t have their papers. As well, there are more than one or two people working in the still-bustling construction sector here in Grand County who come from countries other than the U.S.

I know this sounds odd considering how much people lament how hard it is to find employees up here. It is. But these trends only make this situation worse.

Then there’s the news from the East Grand School District that the student count this year was down by 88 students when compared to last year. People mumble that this is because of more homeschooling and perhaps natural attrition, but I find it to be alarming.

This number affects funding to the district and suggests an overall thinning of our population of the very types of residents we really need — people with families who want to make our county home and contribute year-round to our economy. I fear this suggests that our population isn’t growing.

I’ve said it for years: It’s all well and good to have more visitors coming to our county, but it’s the people who settle down here long term who really contribute meaningfully to our overall economy. They also contribute to the vitality of our society in general. I hate to see that number go lower.

Which brings us to the last data point that casts doubt on the great economic prospects for 2026: affordability. This is one major reason people may be moving away and why some families don’t come to this county. It costs too much to buy a decent home.

And to add insult to injury, we haven’t had much snow.

Like I said, call me a grinch. Merry Christmas.

Patrick Brower is the enterprise facilitator for the Grand Enterprise Initiative. He offers free and confidential business management coaching to anyone who wants to start or expand a business in Grand County. Contact him at pbrower@consultbrower.com.